Nov
A foreboding shadow casts its presence over the globe. In this week’s edition, we unveil The World Ahead 2024, our 38th annual predictive guide to the upcoming year. Throughout all these years, no individual has ever overshadowed our analysis as significantly as Donald Trump does in 2024. The realization that a Trump triumph next November carries a fifty-fifty likelihood is starting to gain traction.
Polls in Swing States
Mr. Trump commands the Republican primary, with several polls placing him ahead of President Joe Biden in swing states. According to a New York Times survey, 59% of voters place their trust in him regarding the economy, as opposed to a mere 37% for Mr. Biden. In the primaries, legal disputes and criminal accusations have paradoxically fortified Mr. Trump’s position. While Democrats have traditionally relied on support from black and Hispanic voters, a notable number are now defecting from the party. In the next 12 months, a stumble by either candidate could decisively shape the race—and consequently, disrupt the world order.
A looming shadow casts its presence over the world. In our latest edition, we present The World Ahead 2024, our 38th annual forecast for the coming year. Never before has an individual overshadowed our analysis to the extent that Donald Trump does in 2024. The realization that the probability of a Trump victory next November is akin to a coin toss is beginning to settle in.
Donald Trump Dominance
In the Republican primary, Mr. Trump asserts dominance, leading in several polls against President Joe Biden in swing states. A New York Times survey reveals that 59% of voters trust him on the economy, in contrast to just 37% for Mr. Biden. Legal challenges and criminal accusations in the primaries have paradoxically strengthened Mr. Trump’s position. Despite decades of Democratic reliance on support from black and Hispanic voters, a significant number are now abandoning the party. In the next 12 months, a misstep by either candidate could shape the race and potentially disrupt the global order.
This moment is precarious for someone like Mr. Trump to re-enter the Oval Office. Democracy faces challenges at home, with Mr. Trump’s unfounded claim of winning the 2020 election serving as more than a lie—it was a calculated bet that successfully manipulated and intimidated his compatriots. Meanwhile, America contends with growing hostility abroad, confronted by Russia in Ukraine, Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East, and China across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. These three nations loosely coordinate their efforts and share a vision of a new international order where might is right, and autocrats are secure.
Given that MAGA Republicans have been planning his second term for months, Trump 2 would likely be more organized than Trump 1, with true believers occupying key positions. Unrestrained in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism, and grandiose deals, a second Trump term fills the world’s parliaments and boardrooms with despair. However, despair is not a solution—it’s time to bring order to the prevailing anxiety.
The greatest threat Mr. Trump poses is to his own country. With power regained through election denial in 2020, he would likely affirm his belief that only losers adhere to the norms, customs, and self-sacrifice that define a nation. In pursuing his adversaries, Mr. Trump would wage war on any institution obstructing his path, including the courts and the Department of Justice.
What would a Donald Trump Victory Look Like?
A Trump victory next year would also have a profound impact abroad. China and its allies would celebrate evidence that American democracy is dysfunctional. If Mr. Trump disregards due process and civil rights in the United States, his diplomats could not advocate for them abroad. The global south would further solidify its suspicion that American appeals to righteousness are merely exercises in hypocrisy, reducing America to just another major power.
A pervasive shadow hangs over the world. In this week’s release, we unveil The World Ahead 2024, our 38th annual foresight guide for the upcoming year. Over the years, no individual has overshadowed our analysis to the extent that Donald Trump does in 2024. The realization that the probability of a Trump victory next November is akin to a coin toss is beginning to register.
Mr. Trump dominates the Republican primary, with several polls placing him ahead of President Joe Biden in swing states. According to a New York Times poll, 59% of voters trust him on the economy, in contrast to just 37% for Mr. Biden. In the primaries, legal battles and criminal prosecutions have only bolstered Mr. Trump. Despite decades of Democratic reliance on support from black and Hispanic voters, a significant number are now deserting the party. In the next 12 months, a misstep by either candidate could determine the race and potentially disrupt the world.
International Order
This is a precarious moment for a figure like Mr. Trump to be back on the threshold of the Oval Office. Democracy faces challenges at home. Mr. Trump’s claim of winning the 2020 election was more than a falsehood; it was a calculated gamble that he could manipulate and intimidate his compatriots, and it has proven effective. America also confronts escalating hostility abroad, challenged by Russia in Ukraine, by Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East, and by China across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. These three nations loosely coordinate their efforts and share a vision of a new international order where might prevails, and autocrats are secure.
Given that MAGA Republicans have been plotting his second term for months, Trump 2 would likely be more organized than Trump 1. Devoted supporters would occupy crucial positions. Mr. Trump would be unrestrained in his pursuit of retribution, economic protectionism, and ostentatiously extravagant deals. It’s no wonder the prospect of a second Trump term fills the world’s parliaments and boardrooms with despair. However, despair is not a strategy. It is high time to bring order to the prevailing anxiety.
The greatest threat Mr. Trump poses is to his own country. Having regained power through his denial of the 2020 election, he would undoubtedly be emboldened in his belief that only losers adhere to the norms, customs, and self-sacrifice that define a nation. In pursuing his adversaries, Mr. Trump would wage war on any institution obstructing his path, including the courts and the Department of Justice.
A Trump victory next year would also have a profound impact abroad. China and its allies would celebrate evidence that American democracy is dysfunctional. If Mr. Trump disregards due process and civil rights in the United States, his diplomats could not champion them abroad. The global south would be further convinced that American calls to do what is right are merely exercises in hypocrisy, reducing America to just another major power.
Donald Trump Protectionism
Mr. Trump’s protectionist instincts would also be unbridled. In his first term, the economy thrived despite his tariffs on China. His plans for a second term would be more detrimental. He and his aides are contemplating a universal 10% levy on imports, more than three times the current level. Even if the Senate restrains him, protectionism justified by an expansive view of national security would raise prices for Americans. Mr. Trump also stimulated the economy in his first term by cutting taxes and distributing COVID-19 payments. This time, America is running budget deficits on a scale only seen in war, and the cost of servicing debts is higher. Tax cuts would fuel inflation, not growth.
Internationally, Mr. Trump’s initial term surpassed expectations. His administration supplied weapons to Ukraine, facilitated a peace agreement between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, and pressured European nations into boosting their defense spending. The U.S. adopted a more assertive stance towards China. While another transactional presidency might yield certain advantages, Mr. Trump’s disregard for human rights could potentially make the Saudi government more compliant post-Gaza war and enhance relations with Narendra Modi’s government in India.
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However, a second term under Mr. Trump would diverge due to changing global dynamics. It is acceptable for countries to be transactional, prioritizing their interests. Yet, Mr. Trump’s eagerness for deals appears detached from reality and devoid of values.
Mr. Trump contends that expending American resources in Europe is an unfavorable deal. He has threatened to swiftly conclude the Ukraine war and undermine NATO, possibly by reneging on the commitment to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all. In the Middle East, Mr. Trump is likely to unequivocally support Israel, even if it exacerbates regional conflicts. In Asia, he may consider striking a deal with China’s President, Xi Jinping, potentially abandoning Taiwan, as he fails to see why America would confront a nuclear-armed superpower for the sake of a small island.
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With the knowledge that the U.S. would forsake Europe, Mr. Putin might be incentivized to persist in the Ukraine conflict and target former Soviet countries like Moldova or the Baltic states. In the absence of American pressure, Israel may struggle to muster internal consensus for peace talks with the Palestinians. Anticipating that Mr. Trump does not uphold alliances, Japan and South Korea might seek nuclear weapons. By asserting that America bears no global responsibility to address climate change, Mr. Trump could obstruct efforts to mitigate it. Surrounded by China hawks advocating confrontation to preserve American dominance, China might misjudge the situation over Taiwan, leading to dire consequences.
A potential second term for Trump would mark a critical turning point, unlike the first. Victory would affirm his most detrimental instincts about power, encountering less opposition to his plans. The moral authority of the U.S. would decline as it knowingly elects him, aware of the potential consequences. The election in 2024, determined by a few swing states and a handful of voters, could shape the fate of the world.